>> shanghai trades up, chinese dots rise -- chinese stocks rise for the first time since 1996. a late rally on wall street that saw the biggest one-day gain equities in four years. and the future of france, we are live at the annual conference of the biggest business lobby the breakdown the 0% growth -- and what it means for europe's second-largest economy. to the show, i'm anna edwards. here in london. let's get straight to the market story and get you up to date and
what is happening overnight, things you might have missed. the rally in the u.s. stock markets halted a selloff that had erased trillions of dollars in equities. let's check in with the latest. david, good morning. david: it is about midday here in asia for our thursday trading session. we are really seeing a tailwind coming from that, no other way to describe it, that surge in wall street overnight. we did feel it at the open. volumes are heavier. compared to the 30 day average, or just about every single market here and in the region -- except for shanghai, which i will get to. a move back to riskier assets, as well as cyclical commodities. copper actually gained in asia. that being said though, the other side of this is that we
are coming off -- and i think this happened over the last hour or so -- we are certainly coming off a high of the day. we are of as much as 2%. japan a big reason for that, as you can see here. that is what we have done so far on thursday, we are only up about 7/10 of 1%. this index was up as much as 3%. it is as if investors are saying that is it for now. seeing some we are of the futures, as well. just getting back some of those. the big market story is the shanghai composite area for the first time in six days, we are actually in the green. it did not did below where it started at trading. we're just getting underway for the afternoon. we were above 3000 one point earlier on. and we quickly came down. warning before the
markets open, we heard from a trader they were again injecting $23 billion -- $123 billion. what analysts are saying, they have to keep doing that, simply because they are ascending. they are buying up a lot of the exchange rates, as well as of course making up for the outflows in the market. at least for now, and i'm saying that themphasize market is trading on the minute, we are up 2%. for the shanghai composite, the first time in i believe seven days. so i will leave it on that, a good note. back to you in london. anna: at least for now, maybe we should leave it there. stop talking. go out and hide. thank you very much in hong kong. asian stocks picking up from yesterday across guest performance on wall street in the u.s.. we so the biggest rally in equities since 2011 on
wednesday, following a rout that had erased $2.2 trillion from u.s. share value. let's have a look at what has happened, this is the u.s. market. the dow up i nearly 4%. the s&p up by nearly 4%. it seems investors were trying to find a flaw in the testing, how far the markets had gone. do they so often much? we also have some commentary coming through from the feds. illiam made everyone think about where the fed is going next. in the final hour of u.s. trading, that has some significance for what we get here in europe later on this morning. that is two hours away. first, let us think about the comments from dudley at the fed. on the relief rally and what it means for the u.s. central bank. sue: what is ahead for the fed? the main question now that the
dust has settled over the turmoil. we did see a rally on wall street, but the reason for the the fed has reduced the likelihood of raising rates in september. turning to bill dudley on some comments on how to feed the rally. he is saying there is a lot less reason to the fed to move sooner rather than later. and take a listen as to why he said so. william: from my perspective, at this moment, the decision to begin the normalization process seems less compelling to me than it was a few weeks ago. but normalization could become more compelling by the time of the meeting. sue: the traders are pricing in a 1 in 4 chance that they lift rates in the september meeting. from evenwn almost odds. e chinahance before the titl turmoil.
ray is out with a comment saying the fed might make a tiny move, a very small nominal rate hike just to get the profit going in the september meeting. that is an interesting thought. of course, dudley said in his comments that there is a big difference between this latest economic turmoil, it have to do with forces outside of the u.s. as opposed to the internal ones. he also believes that the fed policymakers will remain focused on the economic data. and also the wealth effects, because when you have this kind of loss, a multi-trillion dollar loss, deadly effects americans and work. that also will continue to influence how the fed makes its next move. but right now, a lot of things are on the plate -- from a tiny move to know move. and volatility is ruling the day. in new york, su keenan, bloomberg news. anna: now as we move the focus to the feds, leading economists
had to jackson hole in wyoming to talk about inflation and monetary policy. janet yellen will not be there. but expectations are pretty high that the vice-chairman will shed some light on the timing of the interest rate increases. we will bring you the latest from the rural retreat throughout the week. that will include, of course, one interview later on today. bloomberg speaks to the federal reserve president after george and jackson hole -- esther george in jackson hole. don't miss that. to our twitter question for today. how should market turmoil influence the fed and their insurance about interest rates? should they rise above, get back to normal. whatever that means. particularly is a a crisis situation in the economy, and we don't need therefore crisis interest rates. but is there such a wealth of
fact associated with the fall that we have seen, that this is a valid reason to pause in the fed trajectory. have your say. first today, we get some more insight as to the performance of international companies in china. return.t is a here with a preview of what we can expect emma our european business expert caroline hyde has the information. results in half an hour? caroline: indeed, one of the world's biggest has a claim to fame -- it is the number one distiller and china. that is why we are interested, especially chivas regal. maybe a bit early to look at the booze, but let's look at the statistics and china. 15% overall of their profit comes from china. the asian unit as a total, 38%
of sales last year. this is a crucial emerging market for them. and the rout that we have seen, we are meant to be seen slightly improved numbers for fourth quarter. quarters,cal third those have been tough. 3%.a sales following we know the reason and the trend. let's take a look at the challenges. we know they have been hit as well. let's have a look, a crackdown on the extravagant spending. giftgiving, the government has been focused on that. that has been hitting some of the higher end stocks. whiskey reducers and cognac producers, but the biggest effect has been on the middle class. this is where they are focusing
efforts, trying to perhaps get into the slightly cheaper brands. maybe because the local brands have been doing critically well as of late. they are feeling confident about the future, and a. growth willes actually recover to about 5% growth. rather than that deterioration we have seen over the course of the year. interestingly, this year, back to the third quarter, by the end of the fiscal year -- which is now -- we should not be far from stability in china. whiskey is still down, but they say there is a basis for comparison to last year. let's take a look at what the numbers will tell us. whether or not there will be a relief, or we are looking ahead to the next quarter and the concerns after the stock market and the chinese devaluation. so far, we are expecting it to not look too bad. therefore, it will support sales up to a percent. organic growth of profit is up 2.6%.
this is helped by the americans. area, a strong dollar is likely to help them again, as it did yesterday. comparisons, last year was when they hemorrhaged. it gets a little bit more pleasant because of the difficulty last year. and asia is still setting to outperform europe, we're expecting hardly any growth -- 1.1%. asia and the rest of the world will make 4.2%. we want to hear about the future. anna: caroline, thank you. we will see you when the results break later this hour. coming up, we go live to a small french town for a very big event. ource's biggest lobby, reporter test the mood of leading french executives in a subdued french economy. stay with us. ♪
anna: welcome back. stories that you need to know this morning. asian stocks have been climbing today, tracking the biggest gain in u.s. equities in one day. in four years, the shanghai composite is trading up now -- more than 1% as you can see. toping to be the biggest rou since 1996. in an effort to lower financing costs. efforts after the million, the deal would be one of the largest purchases by a u.s. rival. shares plummeted by 80% on the news. monsanto reacted by rising the most. the outgoing greek prime minister has ruled out leading a coalition with opposition parties.
if he fails to win the election next month. alexis tsipras says his party would not put together with new democracy. they were the party that supported him when rebels mutinied over the bailout. alexis tsipras did not rule out a government of national unity, just that he would not be prime minister. a trillionat erased halted, and stocks of their biggest gain in four years yesterday. what is behind the volatility and the rally? is bring in oliver at atlantic equity. great to see you on the program. correction long overdue? we have not had one for a very long time. oliver: yes, i think so. to my mind, there has not been a great deal of new news out there. particularly as it relates to china, we knew the economy was slowing.
people have been talking about this for the past 18 months. but obviously, we have seen a pretty volatile market in the last couple of session. the equity market is in correction territory. as of last night, they climbed out. but i think this is a lot of awful issues to think about. you have oil below $40 now, a couple of weeks ago they could not have gone below $50. you have european markets still fairly sluggish, other emerging theyts -- brazil, russia, are still struggling. lots of issues to struggle with, and the same time the s&p 500 is the long-term historical average of 15 times. there is complacency in the market. anna: it is still trading on those principles? does the u.s. look expensive? european markets in particular, i think they do. they look more expensive after last night we had the rally,
that we cannot get on tuesday after the rout. 150%week, it was almost does it tell you people are complacent? know that china was slowing. therefore, western equity markets just ran away with that too much. but in separate to that, whether you think the markets are excessive anyway? oliver: i think you come back to the quality and you look at the underlying strength of the macro and economic data that we had the last couple of days, in particular, the housing data. we are big believers in the home depot story. that is tied into the recovery and housing. if you look at july's 2 million units, a lot of the metrics are the best we've seen post financial crisis. very strong numbers, consumer confidence earlier in the week was at 101.
well ahead of the forecast. all of the data is telling us that everything in the u.s. is pretty strong. anna: so the only reason for the fed to listen to that equity market noise, if you like, are the wealth affects -- if we see the fact that it took such a kumble that u.s. tv networks and other news out this were talking about the damage done to global equity values by what we saw in china, if we seem to have a wealth effect on the u.s. consumer for example question mark or on spending habits> ? otherwise, should they ignore it question mark oliver: obviously, they cannot. suddenly, the s&p 500 is very global in nature. that showed itself in the earnings, particularly names in the industrial space for you have a lot of exposure to china and other emerging markets. they have been hurting. but you look where the u.s. consumer is, and as i said, as per the confidence data, it is in a good place.
but you are seeing a real change in the way that they spend their money. one of the themes of the first half was that the gasoline savings from the oil price not materialized. exactly, the money managers had a great first half. people putting money into pension plans, asset managers, etc. but they were not going to macy's and spend the money and department stores. what they are doing, they're looking for value. maxx, andmes like tj as consumers moved to the off-price channel, the other names we like our the dollar stores. but we have seen a shift of the days of people going into the macy's, which reported some dismal numbers. anna: are you sensing any weakness in the markets? any weakness that we have seen, you see that as a buying opportunity if you are selective. rates, the comeback to obviously the fed are having
some push out. the potential for a rate rise, and as a last night, i was looking at a 24% chance of a rate hike coming next month. four weeks ago, that wasn't the case. look at the sectors that have rallied on the back of that. financials are a great subsector of the s&p. that looks now like it will be pushed back. but i think we think the banks are seeing some thing like a wells fargo, the best in class, now trading at one and a half times on equity. we think there are opportunities in names like that, jpmorgan would be another one. visa, mastercard, quality company. anna: thank you for joining us. 21 minutes at 6:00 in london. executives french and politicians are gathering at the annual university event. france's biggest business lobby organizes this. it comes at a time when the
economy is seen zero growth, and the threat from the china slowdown looms. caroline joins us from the event. good to see you. what is the mood like their then with this fairly gloomy backdrop, all this market volatility and the sluggish french economy, itself. >> there is definitely some concern here in france among french executives that the market volatility will trigger, although many executives i have been speaking with still see china as a big opportunity in the next few years in the longer term. french, there are 9000 companies present in china. many of the big french companies have taken advantage of the growth we have seen in the past two years to compensate the sluggish growth in france in their domestic markets. company that has been
specially good is the world's leader in electrical equipment. they had tot month, lower the forecast for 2015 because of china, because of the slower chinese builders. i asked the ceo of schneider electric how he pictures the slowdown in china. ours, whether it is mid term or long term think china is still a country that will grow. technology, and a lot of solutions. there arert-term, probably some different markets. and we have to adapt to that. schneider electric ceo is not ready to abandon. even though the headwinds in china are higher-than-expected earlier this year. in fact, it is the new normal in china.
it is normal we are seeing some adjustments. because we are going towards less export driven, more innovations in the economy. and it is normal we are seeing adjustments in the short term in china. caroline, talking about the macro picture in france, we saw zero growth for the second quarter in the country. our business leaders getting impatient with residents francois hollande agenda? caroline: yes, just one year ago remember we had a lot of cynicism here when we had the struggling arrival of the few young dynamic bankers in the france government. one year later, what do executives think about the situation? of course, we have seen some response to the reform. the activity is low, which is allowing them to appear on sunday. it is liberalizing some sectors,
including many executives here. the challenges are not going fast enough. cochairman,o, the which is now the world's biggest maker, what he thought about these changes. and whether he was disappointed when the work of the government in the past 12 months? >> the main challenge for the french economy is to resume growth. and it is to make the business really much more dynamic. and that goes to creating the maximum level of confidence, the maximum level of ability in the economy quality. caroline: so we have 0% growth in the second quarter. 0.7% in the, we had first quarter. which was actually the fastest we have seen in three years. the prime minister said he will keep pushing through reforms in 2016.
his target of course is to lower taxes for businesses, as much as 40 billion euros in 2017. the question is whether that will be too late, because 2017 is also the year of the next presidential election in france. back to you. anna: caroline, thank you very much. joining us from that event in france. we will have more data coming up later on. we will get a reading on some of the metrics on the french economy, how things have been performing as of late. we will be back looking at the volatility in the markets, but we should today get more information on the french economy. so stay with us. that is around 7:45 u.k. time. coming up after the break, we bring you the four-year results. analysts are predicting a pickup that makes china causing a headache. we have a mixed reading from executives on just how much they have a handle of the china situation over the last few
anna: welcome back everybody. 6:30 in london. let's stick with the french theme we have adopted for much of the morning. we are getting news out of pernod. a lot ofhyde is set, carolines on the show today. i'm confusing myself. take us to the number. seeing 2%we are growth, but the market was expecting 2.6%. there is a hit there. but there was an impairment for absolute vodka. they were trying to double the price, i might add that it is
not helping. economic environment, it is challenging and volatile. it has to be china. this is the claim to fame according to bloomberg industries. number one is a distiller in china. theas regal as well as cognac, the chinese really like that whiskey. there are government measures against corruption and extravagant gift giving, it has hit them. pernod raising the dividend. anna: that is interesting in the context of if that is any kind of part of the future. it is part of the story. caroline: trying to ease concerns among shareholders to give them a reason to buy back in. they do aim to gradually improve business performance and 2015,
but fourth quarter organic sales growth is up 3%. in the market had been expecting 4%. they're trying to sound optimistic. it is a bit of a theme, we heard them yesterday saying there was a slowdown in asia. but nevertheless, they believe in the medium-term. this is a company back in the third quarter saying the medium-term will get better. we expect pricing to get better. gradually expecting improvements, but for now, macro economic environments are charging. hit, and sales living up to the expectation. strange aboutg taking an impairment charge related to vodka. anyone who has drunk too much knows that. thank you very much. more on pernod later. asian stocks have been climbing today.
tracking the biggest one-day gain in the u.s. equities in four years. shanghai composite is trading up, one and a half percent. hoping to beat its biggest five-day loss since 1996. there was a seven day reversed purchase agreement in another effort to lower finance cost. monsanto has abandoned its four-year efforts to buy a about $46, at billion. the deal would have been one of the largest purchases of a european company by u.s. rival. the shares plunged 18% on the news. monsanto has reacted by rising the most and six years. third-largest grocery is increasing wages for 85% of the workforce. it will be the biggest raise and decade. they expect to raise the standard rate above the living wage, which is being introduced next april.
let's get an update on what is moving the markets. what are you watching? >> i am watching asian stocks to start with. anna, we are seeing a bit of a rebound gain in the wider asia-pacific index. but also, japan is heading for its biggest two-day increase in nine months. this is after of course we saw u.s. equities have their biggest gain in four years yesterday. it seems like asian stocks are following that suit. i want to highlight the shanghai composite index. i have it up here. a 43% drop here was from the junior high. this was through wednesday, and here you have the steepest five-day drop since 1996. what we are seeing today is the tiniest rebounds, you can see it there -- this is the index over this year. but it is having an impact on another asset class, if you look at commodities today, i will
flip over to this chart of the bloomberg commodity index. you can see a little bit of a rebound here for that commodity basket, too. even though commodities are trading at that 16-year low. inare seeing in gains industrial metals, crude oil, part of that move is because we saw an unexpected drop in u.s. crude supplies last week. back to you, anna. you very much. let's get more on what is driving markets is morning. i am joined by our guest host for the next hour, chris from longview economics. very good to see you, as always. i want to start with looking at the fallout of this china-related market we have experienced. you the last few weeks, do see parallels with other crises? the asian crisis of 2008? i was looking at financial research that shows there have
actually been in the selloff in the chinese equities, a 30% lower volatility than the average of the past six major financial events. it is not quite as bad as it seems, at least on that metric. chris: i think there are significant parallels. not with 2008, i think that is a wrong parallel. i do think there are parallels with other emerging market crises. 1998 is an interesting parallel with the russian crisis. and i think the key part of the parallel is the fed moving towards tightening. the fed's timing started when they were endearing qe. long,een on zurich so there's so much global leveraging in the global markets. so as soon as we get that tightening from the fed, or the anticipation of it, a lot of pressure comes in. and that is what we are seeing play out. it is what we call actually a dichotomy of global growth.
weak, and the domestic u.s. economy is strong. you have this sort of paradox. anna: how do we resolve that? strong western economies on domestic services in the united states and u.k., is it just looking at those markets in isolation question mark they don't look so bad. but the we have is very different story and the emerging markets picture. global capital expenditures, production, how do we square that? chris: it is bizarre. and if you're not careful, you look at some part in think the world is in a reception. other parts it looks like it is booming. the way to square it is what we different parts of the world leveraging up, based on the largess. the exchangeed in rates of other countries. the commodity of the developed fedomies, as soon as the
happens to start withdrawing that largess, it is cheap money. they come under pressure. that is how you square the circle. increase theid not inflation, but it did create asset bubbles in the emerging markets basis. chris: there is a very clear correlation between what the fed is doing and what ends up happening in china through the exchange rate. money gushing in as it did until 2011, a gets in the economy and creates a boom. anna: chris, stay with us. chief market strategist at longview economics. stay with us for another 45 minutes or so on the program. let's go live to a very small frenchtown that i will not try to pronounce. caroline joins us, she is talking to various guest. yes, i am joined by
nicholas. he is one of the up-and-coming french economists, from a consulting firm specializing in this. good morning. we have seen the latest numbers for an employment. do you think this is a real change? nicholas olan as you know, we have had no growth. so it is very difficult to have a decrease in unemployment. you have to understand that there are two reasons, you have a short-term reason which is huge for the economic situation. and we have a secondary reason that the job market is not ok. we need to reform it, but the reform has not been done and france where it would be difficult to have a real decrease in the short-term. caroline: do you believe that president francois hollande is good to reverse this
unemployment by the end of the year? is something like to happen? nicolas: it would be a result before the end. to hisis not due politics. situation.o a major reform, andhave in france, we have made what we a decrease in taxation. which is a good thing. a significant shot to relax regulations and france. honestly, this is good. but we have not addressed the problem of the market. it is very insecure to have a good idea. caroline: let's talk about the markets. how do you determine how these
have anand how will it impact on the real economy ? nicolas: the big part is that we have a return to the chinese economy. and it will last. first, china has been driven by quantitative growth for 30 years. manyn that there were opportunities from western countries to china, a huge migration from the country to the big cities in china. it has made good. but it is over. this kind of growth is over. and the point is that china has to move from quantitative models. and to the innovation model. but in return, they cannot
outspend for 12 years. each universe is great. caroline: does that mean that countries such as france should not rely on china anymore for growth? icolas: it will be an indirect impact. but you have to understand that first economy the in the world in terms of how you see the economy. but it may be the stress. when china is moving from 10% because of% growth, global growth, i think we would have to to reconsider in france to not use them. we are forecasting 1% in france, and i think the impact could be 0.2 or 0.3.
it is significant. caroline: thank you so much. economist at a consulting firm. becky london. anna: more french data coming out. we will have manufacturing confidence, we'll bring that you in our. you can comment on anything, get edwardsnews.na do you think they need to rise above it? or is it something worthy of their consideration? have your say. get in touch. i'm on twitter. 6:43 in london. coming up on the program, our u.s. billionaires paying enough tax? one rather famous billionaire says no. that story, coming up. ♪
london. 6:46 in london. here are the stories you need to know this morning. asian stocks have and climbing today, tracking the biggest one-day gain in u.s. equities four years. the shanghai composite is trading up, just over the steepest five dave gain since i can a six. the seven date reverse repurchase agreement is another attempt to lower financing cost. the outgoing greek prime minister has rolled out leading a coalition with an opposition party. alexis tsipras says his party would not merge with new democracy. they were the party that supported him when rebels within you to need because of the bailout. he did not rule out the government of national unity, just that he would not be prime minister. reachedt windows 10 has 75 million devices since july.
the company says that is six times more downloads per device on the app store than windows eight. microsoft has set an ambitious goal of reaching the fastest adoption rate ever of one billion users within three years. year isflying stop this seeing an exit this of emerging markets. toestors have been piling in benefit from certain demands in china, brazil, and india. but now, they seem to be heading for the exits instead. we have more on that story. what sort of drop are we talking about? >> a significant one. i think the end of july, shares of the spanish wind turbine maker dropped 22%. this is worth noting because earlier this year the stock had more than doubled. what happened is investors have been piling into the stock because they were betting on surging demand from emerging
markets like china, brazil, and india. but the problem is that since then, we have seen this exodus from emerging markets. and that has led emerging markets to question the growth. that is at least what the analysts are saying. the company has not commented on this yet. that said, the stock is one of the best performers on europe's equity benchmarks. it is up more than 17%. anna: with oil prices weaker, many investors will be questioning whether to invest in any kind of renewable energy technology. but wind turbine makers have been top performers this year. what has been driving that trend? >> wind power is actually among the cheapest forms of renewable energy. and actually bloomberg new energy forecasts say the global installations will jump quarter this year. to a record. there are a couple of reasons we have seen such strong performances for wind turbine makers.
firstly, he did struggle after the financial crisis. but they implement it quite drastic cost cuts. that gave them benefits. but it is about all of these targets that governments have on reducing greenhouse gases and using more renewables. talking about of course barack obama's clean power plan. stopina, the goal to rising greenhouse gases by 2030. also of course the u.n. deal on climate change this year. this is really what has been driving these bets on these wind turbine makers. the thing is of course, it is a double-sided coin. all of this potential demand from governments, it means the makers are very dependent on government subsidies. as one analyst some that up nicely, is because the champagne courts are popping now, it does that mean everything is dandy. and we have seen evidence of that. back to you.
anna: thank you very much. let's get more of what is driving markets this morning and beyond with our guest host for the next 45 minutes, chris. chief market strategy at longview. you talk about the parallels of other crises. do you think there is an increasing case for a bear market in western and u.s. equities question mark i know is something you have been thinking about. chris: i would say we have become increasingly nervous of that this year, without actually calling it. but the key point is the u.s. economy late cycle, which maybe means there is another year in terms of growth. that would not drive of their market immediately. as you get into that faith, you get a tightening of global financial condition. one of the ways you can see that is how the corporate bond market has widened quite meanly since last year. everyone says this is down to oil. which it is. but looking above that am a rather than the detail, that is
an important part. an important indication that stress is rising, and we have seen that play out the last month or so. anna: even if interest rates are not going up in the sense that fed has not raised them yet, conditions are tightening. money is getting more expensive for some of those businesses that are seen as riskier bets by the banking sector. their debt is going higher. chris: they have been raising an awful lot of money from the corporate bond market. high yields have been a huge thing in the cycle. if they raise money, a goes into economic activity somehow. it becomes more expensive at the margin. you are pitching condition. but we have seen five episodes of sustained rises in the 30 years. and all five have ended up in a major market correction in u.s. equities, really 15% plus into much bigger numbers. anna: you say this is broader than oil. but there are some amazing statistic.
gas companies are now more than equal to 10%. that is a tripling just since last year. at the ratio of net debt to prop thfit, does a couple of illustrations how servicing debt for oil companies facing six-year lows has got more expensive. chris: absolutely. they get hit by more expensive debt, so it is harder to issue debt. the revenue line goes down as the oil price goes down. it is a big squeeze. and if you look at the global effects from global companies, 50% has been spent on energy and material. if you think about the world economy, shale, all of that cap effects is going away. you start to get a feeling of what the cheap money has done, drawing commodity prices high. and what happens when it starts to reverse, as we've seen now. chris, thank you very much. he is from longview economics. donald trump says people like
him should pay more taxes. t, theng with due respec front runner for the gop nomination said he would simplify the tax laws. he said he would target the way hedge fund profits are taxed. donald trump: the answer is yes, carried interest is a tremendous burden on the country. i have friends, mostly enemies frankly, or it would be saying this. i'm saying it for the good of the country. none of them are going to support me. and i would not want it. like a get it if i wanted it. speaking of, hillary linton has many supporting her. the hedge fund people make a lot of money. they pay very little tax. i am about the middle class. i want them to be thriving again. we are losing the middle class. >> so change the tax code? donald trump: i would change in semper fi. >> you want to tax carried interest in the same way question mark donald trump: i would take that out but let people paying hundreds of
millions of dollars a year pay some tax. they are paying very little. i want to lower taxes for the middle class. i want to lower it for people that are making a lot of money that need incentives. >> that would affect people in limited real estate partnerships. which you are in a fair number. donald trump: i am ok. >> you like to raise that is on yourself? donald trump: you have seen my statements. i don't mind paying some tax. the middle class is getting clobbered. they built this country. not the hedge fund guys. i know people and hedge funds that pay almost nothing. and it is ridiculous. ok? anna: donald trump speaking with all due respects, the current name of that show. tim will take us through some stories. morning, let's rattle through a couple of them. diesel prices, we're talking about commodity prices moment ago, british diesel can rejoice
for the first time since 2001. tim: diesel is actually cheaper than a troll for the first time since 2001. and the reason is if you look at how much americans are driving, it is off the charts. americans are driving like mad. a lot of petrol is driving up prices here. anna: i'm not talking the story before he finished. is the microwave? tim: how would you not read the story? new technology means that synthetic diamonds are so good, the experts need a machine to tell the difference between this one and one that is mind millions of years. anna: you just put it in the microwave, and it is produced? tim: start with carbon, at some youane, and with 10 weeks, have something you might buy. anna: the sound like something
anna: shanghai trades up. chinese stocks rise, holding the benchmark steepest five-day route since 1996. the asian rebound tracks a late rally on wall street, the biggest one-day game in u.s. equities of or years. -- in four years. and we are live at france's biggest business lobby to see what the recent market turbulence means for the eurozone's second-largest economy. a warm welcome to "countdown." i'm anna edwards. 7:00 here in london -- let's get straight to the market story, catching up on things you might
have missed. selloff oflly, a more than $8 trillion. let's bring you up to speed with the asian market. david ingles joins us from hong kong. david, things for looking positive an hour ago on the chinese market. we said we should stop talking because -- you know, i have to keep looking back to my desk, keep changing my script. it has actually happened and over the past two minutes it dipped in the red. now after a few seconds, low and behold, we are back in the green. to just aboutice every single other market in the world does not apply here. i will get you the line chart just for entertainment. aat means we are seeing second day of a relief rally across the region. the volumes are quite heavy.
the only thing as far as the past half hour or so is that things have started to come off a little bit from their peak. japan is just closing up shop and so was australia and south korea. we were much higher toward the day, higher when they opened. you look at asian futures, also coming down. that being said it is still a good day. roughly speaking between all these market shares we are talking about 225 billion u.s. dollars. by they get to the borrowing cost here. --the rotation you look at the bond market and this is what it's telling you. yields are coming back up. the japanese yen is another thing you want to watch.
he commented on a lot of these issues -- there are a lot of people who are too pessimistic over the chinese economy. as far as their economy is concerned, they say the labor market is tight, so perhaps expect wage inflation to follow. nothing new. that is what our fixed income market is doing here. the shanghai composite -- oh, it is back down. let me get the nikkei. the shanghai composite opened up percent.10 of one we were above 3000 at one point. since lunch we have trended lower. the pboc is injecting some money into the system, a seven day reverse when it comes to the
money markets. that's the story here so far -- nothing else dimension. let's send it back to you. anna: thank you very much. the more you talks, the higher it went. i'm not suggesting there was any relation at all, but it was fascinating. it has been a volatile session after a volatile you days. these are the session pictures. at the top of the hour, we saw it dip very briefly into negative territory and now it is up. asian stocks are following u.s. -- wall streety thoughts biggest rally since 2011 following a row that had a raised $2.2 trillion from the value of u.s. shares. let's talk about what is driving the u.s. market. investors were trying to find a stall. we got some slightly better days. they didn't look quite so bad
the even before all the recent market turmoil. and we got some fairly dovish comments from william dudley about where the september was in the cards. it was less compelling, it seemed, following the volatility. we saw a late rally in the u.s. markets. from wall street to wyoming -- it moves from u.s. equities to the fed rate timetable. central bankers in leading economists had to jackson hole in wyoming to talk about inflation and monetary policy. janet yellen will not be there but expectations are high that stanley fischer will shed some light on the fed interest rate increase. we will bring you the latest from the rural escape that is jackson hole -- beautiful scenery guaranteed -- throughout the week. we will be speaking to the kansas city federal reserve president, playing host over at jackson hole. at 11:30 london time.
stay with us for that. that takes us to today's question -- you will find me @annaedwards. is this the kind of thing that the fed needs to rise above? get back to some new normal as quickly as possible? effects associated with falling stock markets means it is justified to talk about delaying the interest rate tightening because of what we have seen? have your say @annaedwards news. breaking news out of the staffing sister. nejra has the breaking earnings report. this is the uk's biggest professional recruitment agency. is the have seen today 764.2 million pounds for your operating profits just short of estimate.
the dividend, though, was a bit of a beat. we will see how the stock moves at the open. , also want to talk about crh a very interesting piece of news wrencey will buy cr la for $1.3 billion. this is basically a north american leading manufacturer and distributor of hardware installation products for the glazing industry. it's interesting because this comes after a crh bought assets from lafarge to expand in emerging markets. it also announced earnings today -- a beat first-half revenue. first-half profits also a bit of a beat.
dividend in line with estimates. anna: thank you very much, nejra. she was just talking about the numbers. we will be speaking to the finance rate of hayes at a club 15 u.k. time. let's talk about other earnings -- a french company has missed estimates. to break seven numbers, caroline hyde is with us. caroline: second-biggest distiller in the world. this is a company that makes all types of drinks. that isa company producing around the world but has a claim to fame in china. i want to dig into the numbers, because this is a fiscal year with an eked profit above 2% -- and missed. underperforming in asia, with profits down 1%.
india is seeing an 18% increase, and there are improving sales in china but they are still falling. the improvement was for chinese sales to fall 2%. last year they were down more an overallut still falling in the chinese market after we see that reduction in giftgiving. let's have a look at the u.s. because the u.s. is a key brand for them. they have showed weakness there to the tune of taking an impairment charge of hundred 4 million euros overall. impact of cover they say, by a challenging usa market even though it is growing outside the u.s. this is an area of concern, the fact that the u.s. is weakening, and china is their number one area. it accounts for 15% of their profit, according to citigroup analysts. the ag unit is almost 40% of sales in total. -- the asia unit is almost 40%
of sales in total. they were down 3% for the full year. clearly, and improvement, but still weakness. competitor, all the field filled the heard from a crackdown on extravagant spending and giftgiving, all of this being reined in by the government. that there is a refocus going on, particularly at pernod. not your top, high-end scotch, but it is still good for those who want to be spending not quite so lavishly, but decent drink. that is where they will be pushing their key brands going forward. meanwhile, confidence -- confidence they exuded, and this is a trend they keep seeing.
there was not a lot of pessimism about the devaluation or the stock market route. they are saying that pricing will improve. that is what came up in their last earning statement. today we understand that there saying they see a concern when it comes to the macroeconomic volatility. volatility -- they are still betting long-term on chinese improvement. hyde,thank you, caroline with the latest on the drink sector. let's get more of what's driving the markets and talk about the fed, with our guest host, chris. at the worldnow interest rate probabilities, chris, it until see there is a 24% chance of a rate moved by the fed in september. that has come down a lot, from 50%. that is where we were at early august. what is your expectation? chris: that's a tricky one, isn't it?
if you look at the domestic economy, they ought to be moving internationally, they would hesitate. that the virgins. it is slightly circular, a catch 22. they clearly want to move, and they will move this year. if markets remain under pressure i don't think they will. but i have a lot of sympathy with what larry summers has been saying over the last few days about qe. we live in a global deflationary world, and that is where the structural pressure is playing out. as soon as you tie the money up the pressures reassert themselves. it is a very difficult game for the fed to move rates in any way meaningfully. indeed, if they do cause markets to come down even further and there is a case for moving back to qe.
anna: global deflationary pressures is no doubt the big talking point at jackson hole this week. that's where they gather in wyoming. chris: complete absence of inflation, any sort of mainstream model. reverse.xactly the the oil price fall hasn't got the consumer going, all the sort of stuff. have a do is we structurally deflationary world, because of his over indebtedness, and the tradable goods sectors. anna: is that what everybody missed when lots of people were saying that the fed was leaving policy out? it was just going to lead to massive inflation in the future? is that what they missed? chris: yes. anna: or is it just that we haven't seen the inflation? chris: know - what is
that shrinking of debt is destruction of money. it is a deflationary trend. air qe is doing is pumping back into the balloon. i think that is the key dynamic at work. anna: chris, thank you very much. chris stays with us a little bit longer. the time in london is for two minutes past 7:00. coming up, the global economic slowdown is hitting europe therts, but one person says greatest risk is already chipping away at export growth. the culprits? we will tell you when we return. ♪
today after the biggest one-day gain in u.s. equities and or years. the shanghai composite has seen volatile trading. it was down 3% at one point but it is now up around half a percent. earlier, the pboc auctioned 150 billion yuan in an effort to lower financing costs. is increasing wages for about 85% of its workforce. the rise will be the company's biggest and more than a decade. the move will left sainsbury's standard rate of pay above the national living wage, which is being introduced next april. issued a new alert about global warming, saying sea levels are rising faster than they previously thought. researchers think an increase of at least a meter is dell unavoidable as polar ice melting is driven by the burning of fossil fuels. nasa says sea levels will rise for decades, if not centuries.
hundreds of french executives and politicians are gathering at the annual university event, the biggest business lobby organized. it comes at a time when france's economy is seeing zero growth and threat from china's slowdown looms large. carillion conan joins us now from that event. good to see you. what is the mood like, then, with the 0% growth from the french economy? well, the mood is still quite optimistic in france, they think growth -- the chinese slowdown is not going to have an impact in the short-term. it may affect some asset decisions but many companies and executives here are starting to think that china is still a big opportunity for them. ceooke, for example, to a
asked the ceo if the slowdown in china and the volatility in the market this week is a concerning factor. or my company, i do not believe it will be a catastrophe. the bigger economy -- an impacts on the rest of the world. nothing is going to be impacted and we can possibly measure a change in china strategy and in the world. caroline: so for a company like his, there is a big possible especially ina,
the waste of business. there is a big problem with air pollution and there are opportunities there. anna: france has been a target of threats in the past few months. is that impacting on the confidence of the business leaders there? caroline: yes. sadly, we have seen regular terrorism threats in the past year. of course, you had the "charlie hebdo" attacks and the attacks on the jewish supermarkets. last friday coming you had the shootings on the train that was stopped by some passengers. a cochairmen of the world's biggest -- whether he thought that was going to impact his continent in his investment. >> i think it had some impact at the beginning of the year, but again, france is not just one
country. if something is happening in france it can happen anywhere. i believe that it is a type of risk which the world of today has to learn how to tackle. it is not only one risk. the lafarge ceo is saying that it may have impacted business at the beginning of the year with the "charlie hebdo" areck, but the other ceos accept tot we have to live with terrorism threats, but it should not reduce optimism and strategy. anna: caroline, thank you. caroline connan joining us live near versailles. stay with bloomberg for more on the french economy story.
macron will stick to bloomberg about the state of the european nation and his hopes for the future. you don't want to miss that tomorrow. we will get more data on the french growth story and around 20 minutes -- we will get various confidence measures. to slow down in the global economy is curtailing exports in the euro area. although there are recent concerns over the exposure to the biggest hits to growth may have come already. let's bring in david powell. chris is still with us. david, thank you for joining us. which of the emerging market economies poses the biggest threat to the export story, the recovery for the euro? david: if you look at what has already happened in the slow down, the demand from other countries, the biggest hit has come from russia.
that is because growth has slowed so precipitously. visible onalready exports, nominal exports to russia has slowed much more. that thenna: so can we say biggest threat is russia, or it is the biggest drag? david: the biggest drag has come from russia. the amount of exports that go to , for example, the chinese economy, which is still much more precipitous and it already has been, the threat would be bigger. but at the moment, if my colleague in asia -- as my colleagues in asia like to say, it has gone from the fastest-growing to the fastest-growing economy. if you believe the numbers. anna: do you not? david: it is a very good
argument that the numbers aren't correct. there are lots of indicators that suggest that maybe the economy is growing at 3% and not 7%. but interestingly, it's not just china. china feeds all the economies around it. euro area exports to other areas in asia, which is a bigger percentage, i believe. : certainly. but if you look at the data on exports to countries from the euro you can see that it has barely had any change over the past year. remains a major outlier -- we aren't seeing much out of that nation. anna: i saw that russian supermarkets were clearing their shelves of washing powders manufactured in the eurozone, which plays vaguely into that. are there any bright spots,
then, in the euro zone economy? a good thing is the diversification of trade. if you look at a decline in exports, they are more than offset by the trade and that has happened for two reasons -- the health of the u.s. economy in the u.s. recovery, and also the huge slide in the value of the euro versus the dollar, that has helped exports. anna: and briefly, any chance the ecb will increase as a result of the market? chris: i think the slowdown slightly increases the chance, but is unlikely to create any major change. draghi already highlighted this as the reason the economic recovery lost momentum, and they are keeping an eye on it. anna: david, thank you. chris, thank you as well. ceo of longview economics.
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anna: welcome back. london.rinre in asian stocks have been climbing today. the shanghai composite has seen volatile trading, falling as much as 3% at one point this morning, currently trading up. but as you can see it was a negative territory less than an hour ago. had ar, the pboc seven-day reverse in another attempt to lower finance costs in the economy. monsanto has abandoned its four-year effort to buy syngenta after it snubbed the offer of $46 billion.
it would have been one of the largest purchases. shares plunged, while monsanto reacted by rising. windows 10 has reached 75 million devices since his release at the end of july. the company says that is six times more downloads per device on the app store then windows a. microsoft has made the ambitious goal of reaching its fastest production rate ever of one billion users within three years. let's get you up to speed with what is moving markets. rally in u.s. stocks halted the selloff that had erased more than a trillion dollars from global equities. whos get to david ingles, has been scratching his head all morning about the chinese market. david, anymore clues? i see we are up 3% now. david: yeah. the last time we talked to -- 25 minutes back -- we were just
above water. that it fell in now we are back up 20 points. i feel like a clown doing this. that being said, one wouldn't be ulted if you were speculating about the government intervening. it's usually this time of the day -- the last hour -- that we do see these wild swings. 3000 -- and are up let me get you some of the breaking news, which just crossed our bloomberg terminal. and has to do with china its treasury. we know they are the biggest holder of the u.s. treasury. of june, we are looking at china -- 1.27 one trillion u.s. dollars. the news was that they have been reducing their holdings of the u.s. treasury to ensure the
smooth adjustment. this is according to people familiar with the matter. china has communicated with u.s. authorities. no number was given -- we don't know how much they have sold. it's a bit surprising to see this bit of news. that ifone would expect china is in the market to dump their treasury, it would be noticeable. that being said, the thinking this $3.7 trillion, of which $1.2 trillion are in the treasury, are not all liquid. when you talk about the need this has been the big story. in theave been buying system to keep it stable, and you just mentioned this, that they also injected another 23 billion yuan into the banking
system to bring financing costs down. it is a balancing act that they are trying to, i guess, balance. that is the currency for you. let me end with a look at two things. the u.s. treasury yield in the borrowing in china. today, the u.s. 10 year yield is backed down -- no reaction. very quickly, let me end with borrowing costs in china, the seven-day repo rate. let me adjust our time frame. where are we? there we go -- 233 basis points, when they cut rates, and this 50k they injected about billion u.s. dollars. that is the state of the market -- shanghai back up, i think,
right now. anna: david, thank you. minute by minute basis. the shanghai composite was 3% higher a few minutes ago, and it has fallen a bit since we first started talking to you. on how it isupdate likely to move european markets. we are standing by with a look at the markets, and before we deal with what's happening in asia we have to factor in the late rally on wall street. nejra: absolutely. unlike asia in europe, we have seen less on an intraday basis but this week it has been a volatile week. monday is the worst since 2008 for european stocks, tuesday is best since 2011. down again yesterday and today, futures swinging higher in suggesting rebound might resume. futures up 1.8%. the dax futures are pointing
higher as well, but we may not see the end of this volatility, because stocks swing has reached an almost four-year high. the -- if you stocks to watch for -- we had some earnings this morning, one missing on lower growth in the u.s. watch to see what that distiller does. also u.s. recruitment agency had earnings just short of estimates, but the dividend was a beat. the dublin-based building materials provider, announced a $1.3 billion acquisition of cr lawrence to expand materials for glazing. that is the u.s. company -- have a look at the stock moves. it was a beat in line with estimates. anna: thank you. let's get an investor's perspective.
simon goodfellow joins us here in the studio. good to see you. have contextualize what we seen from china and the impact it has had on global markets. i read an interesting piece of analysis suggesting that losing $5 trillion in two months is not a great performance for any stock market, but is it any worse than any of the other crises we have seen? when we run the numbers there was a 30% lower volatility in china over that period them the average of the past six --ancial crises, suggesting raising the question of how many parallels there are between this and the asian crisis. events in russia, any other past crisis. what is your view? simon: right. cm invious parallel is lt 1997, and the approximate cause was energy prices. that is the feeling scale of what we are dealing
with in terms of impact on emerging markets. it is not just one country like australia or russia. it is the whole slew. everybody will say that sensitivity to china were there for an exchange banks is better than 1987, but the interconnectedness of their trading system in financial markets terms and in supply chains terms as much greater. this --om line all of if you are looking for bottoming emerging markets, it strikes me that you don't just take the average of the last three bottoms in the century. you look at the big one in 1998. it is the difference between a price book of 1.25 as the average and .94. i think, therefore, that emerging markets were below price-to-book. anna: so you think we are
further. emerging-market stocks look a little bit better? simon: i don't think it is safe to go back into the water yet. i have been listening to that report on the chinese market. it strikes me as the plunge protection in action again. the simplest and most obvious way of reading that data. they say that they are not managing -- well, because they are doing other things, they have stopped managing the market directly. i don't think that's a sensible assumption. anna: the losses are so big on this market since june 12, another fascinating piece of bloomberg analysis tells me a losses we have seen in the chinese market, the size of that in dollar terms, is way bigger than the entire market cap put together. that goes to show how enormous it would be -- a slightly
unpredictable market, it may not operate by the rules of western t it is enormous, isn't it? the are feeling the impact of that. simon: if you remember about five years ago, there was a similar episode. this was when china sold off by 9% in a couple days. everybody reacted for the first time. everyone said -- this is nuts. why are we reacting to china? it was china with these big booms and selloffs, and increasingly people will not -- people will ask how shanghai closed and not tell wall street opened. it is over the next five years that this development takes place. i am old enough to remember when the first thing we did when we woke up was find out how tokyo closed. anna: back in the 1980's.
[laughter] simon: but that is the point, weather,na is going to because it is the second biggest market in the world when you throw everything -- much bigger than your. -- than europe. anna: fascinating conversation. simon goodfellow stays longer. we will take a short break here on "countdown." afterwards we will rake out for your results. analysts predicted a pickup but one part of the business has been giving the second largest distiller a headache. we will be back with more details. ♪
one-day gain in u.s. equities in four years. the shanghai composite has seen volatile trading once again, with raising as much as 3% in the morning, before falling into negative territory. now it is up by 4.6% in the last hour. it has really turned around and shanghai. earlier, the pboc auctioned 150 billion yuan in an effort once again to lower finance costs. sainsbury's is increasing wages for about 85% of its workforce. before percent rise will be the company's biggest and more than a decade. the move will left sainsbury standard rate of pay above the national living wage, which is set to rise next april. crh has agreed to buy cr lawrence 41 $.3 billion. it is america's leading manufacturer and distributor of
insulation products for windows. 7:45 in london. a french company missed estimates earlier this morning and carolinas here to break down the numbers. caroline: never too early to mentionut lose, not to the scotch whiskey. these are all the brands they currently provide across the world, notably in china. say that they did miss analyst estimates. this is the world's second-biggest distiller. the market wanted to see 2.6% -- it was a mess although in line with forecasts. in asia, weakness continuing, profits down 1%. chinese sales are continuing to fall, but they are not as bad as it was last year. in fact, they are improving. china sales are down 2% last
year they were down more than 20%. there is a road to recovery here but it is not a story of growth as we were used to back in the day. we used to see the likes of the emerging markets adding to growth, see that area of expansion. now, not the case. in the u.s. can there was there was weakness and they had to take charge. headwind, and the -- this down in china is where they get 15% of their profit. they are the number one brand in china and that is their claim to fame. the aging unit makes up about 40% of sales last year. macroeconomicg environment is all we get in terms of lipservice to china. no talk of a route, no talk of devaluation. all we get is a volatile
macroeconomic environment. they sound relatively optimistic, in fact, talking about the improvement of the chinese market. let's dig into the challenges that are facing distillers, them and their key competitors. what is hurting so much? the crackdown on extravagant spending. that has been hurting the scotch whiskey, and of course a variety of cognacs. the refocus, therefore, is on the middle class. it's not the high-end prices, this is local varieties. india is really going for it on scotch. confident ofey are the pricing mix and sales growth to recover. we could see sales go up to
4%-5%. at the moment, asia profit is down in sales going up 4%. stick with the french seem a little bit longer and bring you news at a friend. some confidence indicators released this morning, suggesting a slide may be in the picture. manufacturing confidence rose to 103. let's get reaction from caroline connan, at france's biggest business lobby event near versailles. do these what ar results mean for the broader growth story? is an improvement in confidence that we can see here among business executives, but let's not get ahead of ourselves. the improvement is very small, and if you look at the
unemployment numbers we had last night, we saw a decline of 0.1% in july. that was the first decline in six months that it was still a very small decline. an extra 600,000 jobs figures in france. one year ago here, there was a cabinet reshuffle, young and dynamic ex-bankers. talking to many executives here, i asked whether they were disappointed. >> what i would have wished for is that there was word but now we need action. the reform here has not been pushed enough. we need a simpler code of work. we need a simpler regulation. taxes. cheaper
that, it has not done to the right level to be competitive with some of our neighbors. wasline: a bigger label more tax cuts for businesses and that is what the executives want to say here. in fact, the prime minister promised to cut taxes for businesses by 40 billion euros in 2017. that is also the year of the next presidential election in france. anna: caroline, thank you. caroline connan and friends. minutes away from the start of the european trading day -- 7:51. this is what the futures look like. no surprises when you consider that on wall street we saw a late in the day rally. the optimism that we are now seeing in the asian equities session --
let's rejoin our conversation with simon goodfellow. he is the ceo -- we were talking earlier about what we saw out of china. you saw it as an interesting role for the imf and supporting the economies that would be impacted by whatever slowed and we see from china. simon: well, let's back up. the imf is going to have to become more involved in asia at some stage. there is a suggestion that there is an immediate crisis. by going back to the commentary in greece, which i do think there is an interesting connection with, basically all the emerging market countries have been inundated with attention. they are breaking a lot of procedural rules in the process. it didn't matter, i don't think, while there wasn't anything else they could and should be doing or preparing to do. therefore i think, if i was a
voting member, on the imf, i would say -- why are we wrisking greece? we should write off the debt and move on. anna: that is where the link between the china's slowdown in the eurozone lies. simon: well, it's not the only is what wet can talk about -- there are competing calls on the imf's expertise for the rest time since the greek crisis broke. tot needs to be factored in the greek situation alongside the fact that we have another election and grace, and spain and portugal go to the polls later on. warning about a slowdown in china came through in the shape of weaker commodity prices. what do you see in commodity prices now? simon: we see no signs of an early balance. possible, but as
particularly in terms of oil, i see lower for longer. anna: simon, thank you for joining us. simon goodfellow. a few minutes away from the start of european equity trading. "on the move" is up next. don't take your eyes off shanghai -- that is my one bit of advice. onathan: i took my eye off and i was punished for it. we will talk about that sentiment over in china and the investments that remain shaken. we will also be talking to the finance director in the hague. what is the slow down, never mind a market route? at 8:00, an epic rally in u.s. stocks. that,l be talking about
and federal capitulation -- yesterday's rally was fueled by soothing words from the new york fed president. september -- it looks like that window is closed. we will do that after the next short break. anna: could you talk about them macro backdrop, then. sounds like a good show. that will do it for count them." -- for "countdown." futures will be higher than at the start of this european trading day -- knows a price when you look at what wall street did in the last hours of trading. we have been watching with great interest what shanghai has been doing. ♪
china boy good morning and welcome to on the move. we are moments where from the start of european trading. let's get straight to your morning brief. chinese stocks erased again of more than 3% before advancing again. five datesteepest since 1996 investors remain shaken. the dow jones delivers its biggest day of gain since 2011 fueled by soothing words from one central bank official. the u.s. rate hike in september looks increasingly unlikely. saysew york fed president the option looks less
compelling. european futures are climbing ever higher. dax futures up 240 points. is it possible that in the early part of the session we can erase all of the losses for the week? caroline: because what losses we have seen. off of globalped equity markets. that is the entire value of the european stock 600. that is five times the value of the entire ftse 100. but now we are on our way up. 40 up 2.3%. cac the desire for equities is back on. could we actually see more quantitative easing before we see a rate hike? that is something being put on the table by the founder